Weekend Stock Market Outlook – July 07 2024 – The Global Tofay

Weekend Stock Market Outlook – July 07 2024 - The Global Tofay Global Today

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of July 7th = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend
  • Institutional Activity (Price & Volume): Uptrend

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place for U.S. equities.

The S&P500 ($SPX) rallied 2.0% during last week’s holiday-shortened sessions.  The index now sits ~5% above the 50-day moving average and ~9% above the 200-day moving average.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of July 07 2024

All three indicators (ADX, On Balance Volume and Institutional activity) remain bullish.

Industry sector performance highlights some recent concern over market breadth for equities, as the only categories outperforming the index are also home to Mag 7 stocks ($XLK, $XLY).

Weekly price performance of S&P500 sector ETFs

S&P Sector Performance for Week 27 of 2024**

Considering the limited gains noted above, it’s no surprise that large cap growth stocks were the outperformers on a sector style basis (e.g. $IWF).

Weekly price performance by sector style

Sector Style Performance for Week 27 of 2024**

Most asset classes benefited from the drop in the U.S. dollar (i.e. inverse correlation at play), while the correction in Bitcoin completed it’s 4th week.

Weekly price performance by asset class

Asset Class Performance for Week 27 of 2024**

**NOTE: Due to the holiday-shortened trading week (4-days), the weekly (5 days) performance calculations use closing prices from Thursday, June 27th.

June ISM manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, coming in below 50 (48.5) and signaling a 3rd month of contraction.  ISM services PMI fared worse versus expectations, dropping to 48.8 and resuming the downtrend that started in January.

In terms of employment, job openings (JOLTs data) increased in May and June NFP was higher than expected.  The NFP data comes with an asterisk, because May numbers were revised much lower and June still came in lower.

This week starts with two speeches from Federal Reserve Chair Powell (Tuesday/Wednesday), following by CPI on Thursday, and PPI Friday.  And don’t forget that earnings season starts later this week with the banking sector.

Best to Your Week!

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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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#Weekend #Stock #Market #Outlook #July

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